By 
November 2nd, 2022
Wait a Minute!
Note: “Wait a Minute!” is the first of a series of stories written to flag issues of concern, consternation, and constant aggravation.
Around and around it goes, where it ends up is anybody’s guess.
China’s “forget me not” Long March 5B core booster weighs an estimated 22.5-metric tons. That’s about the size of a 10-story building.
That core stage is a circling-the-Earth leftover associated with the recent launch of the third and final experiment module of China’s Tiangong Space Station, Mengtian.
Level of risk
“The uncertainty of where the large debris will ultimately land presents a level of risk to human safety and property damage that is well above commonly accepted thresholds,” explains The Aerospace Corporation and its Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS).
CORDS as is the U.S. military and a global network of satellite watchers are actively tracking the CZ-5B rocket body. And for good reason.
Notes The Aerospace Corporation, similar uncontrolled reentries of Long March rockets occurred in 2020, 2021 and most recently in July 2022 – of which, two resulted in large debris landing near populated areas.
Predicted Reentry Time: November 5, 2022 04:51 UTC ± 14 hours.
Predicted Reentry Time 05 Nov 2022 04:51 UTC ± 14 hours.
Yellow Icon – location of object at midpoint of reentry window
Blue Line – ground track uncertainty prior to middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line – ground track uncertainty after middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Pink Icon (if applicable) – vicinity of eyewitness sighting or recovered debris.
Credit: The Aerospace Corporation/CORDS
Precautionary preparation
“Over 88 percent of the world’s population lives under the reentry’s potential debris footprint. Factors such as the rocket core’s uncontrolled manner of descent and its size, which is too large to entirely burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere, collectively present risks high enough that require additional precautionary preparation around the world,” adds The Aerospace Corporation.
China’s Long March 5B core stage is predicted for a November 5th return to Earth: latest predictions at The Aerospace Corporation’s CORDS site are available here at:
https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rb-id-54217
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