Liftoff ofCZ-3C GJ-II Y12 carrier rocket in 2014.
Via Seger Yu

According to Bill Gray of Pluto Project software:

Corrected identification of object about to hit the Moon – not a SpaceX upper stage.

“Short version: back in 2015, I (mis)identified this object as 2015-007B, the second stage of the DSCOVR spacecraft. We now have good evidence that it is actually 2014-065B, the booster for the Chang’e 5-T1 lunar mission. (It will, however, still hit the moon within a few kilometers of the predicted spot on 2022 March 4 at 12:25 UTC, within a few seconds of the predicted time.)”

Chang’e 5-T1 lunar mission took this image during its flight.
Via Seger Yu

Convincing evidence

Gray adds that “in a sense, this remains ‘circumstantial’ evidence. But I would regard it as fairly convincing evidence. So I am persuaded that the object about to hit the moon on 2022 Mar 4 at 12:25 UTC is actually the Chang’e 5-T1 rocket stage.

Chang’e 5-T1 lunar spacecraft was precursor mission for China’s step-by-step Moon exploration program.
Via Seger Yu

Eric Berger, senior space editor at Ars Technica, has an updated article on this topic .

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China space watcher, Seger Yu, has posted a set of photos related to the CE-5 T1 probe, noting that the upper stage is from the CZ-3C GJ-II Y12 carrier rocket.

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