Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Soviet Venera 8 landing capsule. Venera 8 was one of a pair of Venus atmospheric lander probes designed for the spring 1972 launch window. The other mission, Cosmos 482, failed to leave Earth orbit.
Image credit: NASA/NSSDCA

The fall to Earth of that old Soviet Kosmos 482 hardware is now forecast for a predicted reentry time of May 10 at 05:54 UTC ± 9 hours.

That’s the word from The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS).

Yellow Icon – location of object at midpoint of reentry window
Blue Line – ground track uncertainty prior to middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line – ground track uncertainty after middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Pink Icon (if applicable) – vicinity of eyewitness sighting or recovered debris
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track. Areas not under the line are not exposed to the debris.
Image credit: CORDS

This incoming hardware is the lander module from a 1972 failed Soviet Union Venera mission to Venus.

When and where?

What’s set for taking the plunge to Earth is a 1,091 pound (495 kilograms), egg-shaped Venus lander from the stranded main spacecraft back in 1972.

Since it was designed to survive a dive into the murky atmosphere of Venus, the landing capsule is expected to survive and impact the Earth’s surface.

The leftover Venera descent lander has an orbital inclination of 51.95 degrees, so the reentry can occur anywhere between latitude 52 N and 52 S. But due to solar activity that influences the thickening of Earth’s atmosphere, exactly when and where the hardware augers in is unknown.

Ralf Vandebergh of the Netherlands has been collecting imagery of the hardware over the years. He recently provided to Inside Outer Space comparative imagery taken of the soon-doomed gear.

Image credit: Ralf Vandebergh

Vandebergh’s imagery shows max resolution version of Cosmos 482 compared to Cosmos 44 rocket from a 1964 launch. “The structure in Cosmos 482 is unlike anything I have seen in 15 years of satellite imaging,” he tells Inside Outer Space.

Reentry science experiment

Meanwhile, also keeping an eye on the upcoming reentry is the European Space Agency (ESA).

The Venus lander was made to withstand the extremely harsh conditions of Venus’ hostile atmosphere, ESA notes, and is designed to take 300 G’s of acceleration and 100 atmospheres of pressure.

“As a result, it might survive its reentry into the atmosphere,” adds ESA.

In addition, the special, smooth aerodynamical shape of the spacecraft, ESA explains, “allows it to function as a measure of the density in very low Earth orbit. Every time the elliptical orbit passes through the perigee, it loses apogee height. The atmospheric drag on the object can be inferred from the altitude difference right until reentry. The design of most spacecraft is too complicated to make accurate measurements, but the Venera descent craft’s nearly spherical shape does allow it. This turns its reentry into an ‘accidental’ reentry science experiment,” ESA concludes.

Venera 8 artwork shows the landing capsule on the cloud-veiled world on July 22, 1972.
Image Credit: NPO Lavochkin