Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Venera 8 was one of a pair of Venus atmospheric lander probes designed for the spring 1972 launch window. The other mission, Cosmos 482, failed to leave Earth orbit.
Image credit: Hall of Venus/NPO Lavochkin

The fall to Earth of that old Soviet Kosmos 482 hardware is now forecast for May 10, plus/minus 1.1 days.

That’s the word from sharp-eyed satellite tracker Marco Langbroek in Leiden, the Netherlands.

“This object is the lander module from a 1972 failed Soviet Venera mission to Venus,” Langbroek posts on his SatTrackCam Leiden website. “Because of a failure of the upper stage of the rocket that launched it, it got stuck in a very elliptical orbit around Earth in 1972, instead of going to Venus.”

Image credit: Dominic Dirkx/Marco Langbroek

Hard impact

According to recently declassified Russian historic documents unearthed by Anatoly Zak, publisher of an informative website specializing in Russian space activities, Soviet flight control specialists purposely separated the 1,058 pound (480 kilogram) egg-shaped Venus lander from the stranded main spacecraft back in 1972.

“As this is a lander, which is in a semi-globular Titanium protective shell, a bit of a metal bucket,” notes Langbroek, fabricated to survive passage through the thick Venus atmosphere, “it is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact.”

Langbroek adds that it likely will be a hard impact.

Venera 8 artwork depicts lander on Venus surface – likely similar to Kosmos 482 hardware.
Image Credit: NPO Lavochkin

Parachute prognosis

“I doubt the parachute deployment system will still work after 53 years and with dead batteries. There are many uncertain factors in whether the lander will survive reentry though, including that this will be a long shallow reentry trajectory, and the age of the object,” Langbroek believes.

On that score, another satellite tracker, Ralf Vandebergh, also of the Netherlands, speculates that his imagery may show the descent lander’s parachute tangling in space. If so, it would be destroyed during the heated plunge to Earth.

Image credit: Ralf Vandebergh

When and where?

The precise reentry date and where the leftover descent craft hardware would fall to Earth are unknowns.

“With an orbital inclination of 51.95 degrees, the reentry can occur anywhere between latitude 52 N and 52 S,” Langbroek points out. However, to what degree solar activity will play in influencing the timing and whereabouts of the reentry is an uncertainty.

“Stronger solar activity will mean an earlier reentry, lower solar activity a later reentry,” Langbroek states.

Coming in over Europe?

Also keeping a watchful eye on the incoming leftover is The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS). Their current predicted reentry time is May 10, 04:42 UTC ± 19 hours.

The CORDS prediction is that the reentry is to occur sometime this weekend, showing the object reentering over Europe at 12:42 a.m. US Eastern Time this Saturday.

Yellow Icon – location of object at midpoint of reentry window
Blue Line – ground track uncertainty prior to middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line – ground track uncertainty after middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Pink Icon (if applicable) – vicinity of eyewitness sighting or recovered debris
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track. Areas not under the line are not exposed to the debris.
Image credit: CORDS

“Because Cosmos 482 is defunct, we expect it to perform an uncontrolled reentry as Earth’s atmosphere finally causes its orbit to decay, versus landing deliberately in the ocean or in a remote area,” observes The Aerospace “Kickstage” posting.

Because the object was originally designed to land on Venus—a much harsher atmosphere and environment to survive than Earth’s—“it is possible Cosmos 482 could survive reentry to the extent that parts of it strike the surface rather than burn up entirely,” observes the “Kickstage” posting.

Risk is nonzero

As for the risk posed to people on the ground, “while the risk is nonzero, any one individual on Earth is far likelier to be struck by lightning than to be injured by Cosmos 482.”

How likely is it that the decent lander plops down in your yard?

“We definitely do not expect Cosmos 482 to land in your yard specifically. Given the nature of its orbit, most of the Earth is still in play for its reentry, and consequently it is far more likely to land in the ocean or an unpopulated area,” the posting adds.

Soviet Union’s Venera 8 museum display.
Image credit: NPO Lavochkin

Finders keepers?

On the other hand, if the object defies the odds and does land in your yard, please don’t touch it!

“It could potentially be hazardous, and it is best to notify your local authorities,” the posting notes.

As for taking the finders keepers approach, don’t get your hopes up.

“There is a United Nations treaty that governs found debris—the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. It states that countries keep ownership of objects they launch into space, even after those objects reenter and return to Earth. The country that launched the object in this case is Russia, which could request the return of any parts that survived reentry. It is also worth noting that the treaty says that the launching country is also internationally liable for damages,” the Kickstage item explains.

Soviet Venera 8 landing capsule. Venera 8 was one of a pair of Venus atmospheric lander probes designed for the spring 1972 launch window. The other mission (Cosmos 482 – 1972-023A) failed to leave Earth orbit. 
Image credit: NASA/NSSDCA