Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Image credit: SpaceX

The dispersion of launch costs has shrunk over the years. A new paper noted that three effects could be causing this phenomenon.

• Historically it has been documented how there is a high degree of trial and error in the early application of technologies, leading to a wide dispersion in productivity outcomes.
• Space exploration began in a Cold War era and was dictated by the objective of showcasing scientific advancements. As a consequence, launch costs were a secondary concern, especially with respect to reliability. Spacefaring nations would want to launch using their home-based rocket technology irrespective of the cost.
• Starting in the 1980s, the private sector has become interested in placing its own satellites in space, predominantly for telecommunication purposes. Evidently, this has progressively led to a shifting focus toward profitability and cost minimization.

This research paper can be read at:

https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/5/7/pgag217/8732400

Average launch cost, world. This chart represents the time series estimate of the average cost of launching a kilogram of payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) between 1960 and 2025, expressed in 2024 US Dollars.
From Sputnik to Starship: Estimating the experience curve of space launch technology
Image credit: Alessio Terzi, et al.

Geopolitics and space access

Also, go to this companion research that highlights the following points:

• US launch costs are now over 3x cheaper than European ones.
• The US accounts for over 80% of global payload to orbit in 2025.
• Only the US and Europe display a space launch experience curve.
• Cost asymmetries reinforce strategic dependencies with security implications.

Go to “Geopolitics and space access: cost asymmetries and strategic dependence” at:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176526003782