Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Image credit: SpaceX

The dispersion of launch costs has shrunk over the years. A new paper noted that three effects could be causing this phenomenon.

• Historically it has been documented how there is a high degree of trial and error in the early application of technologies, leading to a wide dispersion in productivity outcomes.
• Space exploration began in a Cold War era and was dictated by the objective of showcasing scientific advancements. As a consequence, launch costs were a secondary concern, especially with respect to reliability. Spacefaring nations would want to launch using their home-based rocket technology irrespective of the cost.
• Starting in the 1980s, the private sector has become interested in placing its own satellites in space, predominantly for telecommunication purposes. Evidently, this has progressively led to a shifting focus toward profitability and cost minimization.

This research paper can be read at:

https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/5/7/pgag217/8732400

Average launch cost, world. This chart represents the time series estimate of the average cost of launching a kilogram of payload into Low Earth Orbit between 1960 and 2025, expressed in 2024 USD.
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Image credit: Alessio Terzi, et al.