Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Deployed during 1984 space shuttle mission, NASA’s Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBS) spacecraft is making an uncontrolled death dive into the atmosphere.
Image credit: NASA

NASA’s Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBS) spacecraft is nearing its uncontrolled death plunge into the atmosphere.

Weighing in at nearly 2.5 tons (2,449 kilograms), NASA expects most of the satellite to “burn up” as it dives through the atmosphere.

However, some components are expected to survive the reentry. The space agency’s risk of harm stats for anyone on Earth is approximately 1 in 9,400.

Mitigation guidelines

The hefty ERBS satellite was the first spacecraft to be launched and deployed by a NASA space shuttle mission, back in early October 1984. For 21 years the ERBS studies how the Earth absorbed and radiated energy from the Sun, and made measurements of stratospheric ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and aerosols. 

Image credit: NASA

In 2002, the spacecraft’s perigee (low point to Earth) was lowered to ensure that the vehicle would naturally decay within 25 years after its end of mission, in compliance with NASA and then national orbital debris mitigation guidelines.

Yellow Icon – location of object at midpoint of reentry window
Blue Line – ground track uncertainty prior to middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line – ground track uncertainty after middle of the reentry window (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Pink Icon (if applicable) – vicinity of eyewitness sighting or recovered debris
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track. Areas not under the line are not exposed to the debris.
Image credit: CORDS

Orbit lowering

In 2005, as part of that ERBS decommissioning process, all residual propellants were expended during a two-month interval. The spacecraft’s orbit lowering was deemed “fortuitous” as ERBS’s propulsion system had further degraded and was no longer capable of such a maneuver.

According to the Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS), the ERBS nosedive to Earth is predicted to be January 9, plus or minus a handful of hours.

To keep an eye on the incoming spacecraft, go to:

https://aerospace.org/reentries/erbs-id-15354