Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Image credit: Data from USSPACECOM/A.Boley, M. Byers

The debris from a 2021 anti-satellite test created complications for satellites at higher altitudes, including SpaceX’s Starlink “megaconstellation.”

According to SpaceX, over 1700 of the 6873 collision avoidance maneuvers performed by its satellites in the six months from December 1, 2021 to May 31, 2022 were due to Cosmos 1408 debris, produced by Russia’s destructive anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon test.

A new commentary in Nature spotlights the urgent need for an international agreement banning all destructive anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon tests.

The authors are Aaron Boley of the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada and Michael Byers within the university’s Department of Political Science.

Credit: India Defense Research & Development Organization

Test-to-disrupt

Using the recent Russian 2021 ASAT test as a reference, the commentary authors see the incident as how states could use the guise of an ASAT test to substantially interfere with an adversary’s mega-constellation by necessitating a sudden and dramatic increase in collision avoidance maneuvers.

Because the aggressor can claim that the action was “just a test”, it would normally not trigger the right of self-defense.

This outcome, the commentary authors add, raises the possibility that a state may conduct a “test” with the intent of disrupting space operations of another state.

A highly modified F-15A scored a direct hit on a U.S. satellite in this Sept. 13, 1985 test shot over Edwards Air Force Base, Calif.
Credit: Edwards Air Force Base

“Such a ‘test-to-disrupt’ may be attractive to some states because it offers a way to diminish another state’s space capabilities without the action constituting an ‘armed attack,’ which would trigger the right of self-defense and allow a military response,” the research paper notes.

Go to this link to read the full paper at:

https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/docs/Comment_Boley_ASAT_AUTHORCOPY.pdf