By 
August 4th, 2026
A big bruiser of a rocket stage. SpaceX photo of one of the company’s Falcon 9 second stages, taken in 2022. A similar second stage is expected to impact the moon in August 2026.
Image credit: SpaceX
The Moon is in the cross-hairs of a SpaceX rocket stage, slamming into our celestial neighbor on August 5 at roughly 2:35:37.5 AM (US) Eastern Daylight Time reports astronomer, Bill Gray of Project Pluto.
That high-speed impact “may produce potential observables,” according to research led by Benjamin Fernando at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
— The impact flash: a brief flash of light lasting less than one second in duration produced by the vaporization of the impactor.
— The impact plume: a cloud of ejecta (and possibly vapor) lofted above the lunar surface and evolving on a timescale of minutes.
— The resultant crater: a final crater diameter of 20-30 meters is expected based on computer models.
— A double crater. This feature may be produced if the large rocket stage is “decapitated,” which may occur depending on the stage’s attitude at the time of impact.
Before and after impact pictures
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO).
Image credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab
After the impact several Moon-orbiting spacecraft are to make follow-up observations.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has acquired both baseline (before) and will take post-impact (after) imagery.
Buzz by flyby
Here’s an interesting note.
Credit: Korean Aerospace Research Institute
Korea’s Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter will experience a “close conjunction” with the rocket stage as it plunges into the lunar landscape. In near-miss terms – roughly on the order of a few kilometers or less – the rocket stage will zoom by the Korean spacecraft roughly two minutes prior to the stage’s impact.
Like LRO, Korea’s Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter has taken imaging of the crash site and follow-up imagery is planned in as close to real time as possible.
An illustration of the Moon with an arrow pointing to a predicted impact site for the Falcon 9 upper stage 2025-010D in August 2026, courtesy of Project Pluto. Image credit: Bill Gray/Project Pluto
Resources
Also, go to my previous stories:
Moon Plume: Saga of a Spent SpaceX Rocket Stage Impact
https://www.leonarddavid.com/moon-plume-saga-of-a-spent-spacex-rocket-stage-impact/
A SpaceX rocket will slam into the moon this August. Will we be able to see it?
A SpaceX rocket will crash into the moon this week, and scientists aren’t sure what to expect
Posted in Space News
