By 
July 3rd, 2026
Image credit: SpaceX
The Federal Aviation Administration has issued a 10-year forecast for licensed commercial space operations
The FAA is predicting nearly 4,300 launches and reentries under the high-case scenario between FY 2026 and FY 2036. Operations would steadily increase annually from more than 200 to more than 500 per year.
“The projected growth reflects anticipated demand for satellite deployment, crew and cargo transportation, in-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing, development of lunar outposts, space tourism, and Mars settlement efforts,” reports the FAA.
Image credit: FAA
Existing and planned applicants
Based on data provided by existing licensed operators, and to the extent possible, the forecast looks at planned activity of prospective license applicants. “It also accounts for potential changes in the number of launch operators and the increased use of reusable and larger launch vehicles with greater payload capacities,” the FAA adds.
As indicated in the forecast, many missions in the projection involve initial satellite deployment and subsequent replacement as satellites reach the end of their operational life. Deployment timing can significantly affect forecast accuracy.
Image credit: FAA
Mega-constellations
The current forecast includes — but is not limited to — Amazon’s Kuiper and SpaceX’s Starlink mega-constellations of spacecraft.
Kuiper deployment began in 2025. Full deployment is expected by 2031 and replenishment starting in 2032.
For Starlink, its low Earth orbit network reached full deployment at the end of 2025, with replenishment operations commencing that same year.
To access this new, just-released FAA forecast – go to:
https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2026_Commercial_Space_2.pdf
Posted in Space News
