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February 8th, 2025
Uncertainty exists associated with operating in cislunar space, as well as on and around the Moon – so much so that a “security dilemma” between countries can evolve.
There is need to provide an opportunity for transparency, coordination, cooperation, and collaboration a new report suggests. It calls for inclusive engagement and decision-making concerning cislunar space, including the development of improved rules and best practices.
The Outer Space Institute has published a report on cislunar security: New Moon: A Cislunar Security Workshop Report.
The Outer Space Institute (OSI) is based at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver and is a network of world-leading space experts.
Earth’s Moon and cis-lunar space are new destinations for numbers of nations. To what extent is that presence demand or promote a military presence?
Image credit: Inside Outer Space
Military buildup
Defined in the report is that a security dilemma occurs “when a state, lacking clear information about whether a potential adversary is engaged in a military buildup, faces a choice between building up its own military, or doing nothing and risk being overwhelmed.”
Indeed, voices within U.S. national security circles have voiced support that the U.S. Space Force should have a cislunar military presence, strengthening the ability to guard commercial interests as a “cislunar economy” evolves.
One major issue identified in the report is lunar surface traffic management. It involves ensuring that one actor does not impede another actor – or imperil its personnel, equipment or installations – by approaching too closely or causing dust lofting or radio interference of some kind. “But what is a reasonable distance,” the report adds, “and who gets to decide?”
Carving up near-moon locales: How strategic could this be for military interests? (Image credit: Aerospace Corporation)
China’s lunar program
Given China’s growing progress in Moon exploration, via robots and eventual human treks to emplace an International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), there has been little effort by Western experts to analyze documents on cislunar space from China or, indeed, to engage with Chinese experts.
“Unfortunately, this only increases the risk of one or more security dilemmas,” the report observes.
Image courtesy U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in its “2022 Challenges to Security in Space” report.
To access the full report — New Moon: A Cislunar Security Workshop Report — and its recommendations and conclusions, go to:
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