Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) topped by the Orion spacecraft at Launch Pad 39B, Friday, Nov. 11th at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Post-hurricane teams have begun walkdowns and inspections at the pad to assess the status of the rocket and spacecraft after the passage of Nicole. Launch of the uncrewed flight test is targeted for no earlier than Nov. 16 at 1:04 a.m. EST.
Image credit: NASA/Joel Kowsky

Hurricane Nicole’s impact to the Artemis mission may be quite long-lasting. The recent delay of the mega-booster’s liftoff from Florida to no earlier than November 16 raises questions about NASA’s actions for weather risk mitigation and preparation.

That’s the view from AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter at the Global Weather Center.

“This entire situation raises serious questions about NASA’s procedures for weather risk mitigation and preparation based upon available forecasts, especially over the weekend given that several days notice is required in order to safely move the rocket back to the Vehicle Assembly Building,” said Porter as attributed to AccuWeather sent out by Edelman, a communications firm based in Washington, D.C. 

Inside Outer Space contacted AccuWeather, verifying Porter’s comments. 

Gusty prognosis

For days in advance, AccuWeather meteorologists accurately highlighted the risk of hurricane-force winds, Porter said, especially in gusts, to occur near the Kennedy Space Center as Nicole made landfall early Thursday morning.

Courtesy: Valder Beebe Show

“Many wind sensors at Kennedy Space Center, on and near the launch pad, reported several wind gusts above 85 mph with a peak wind gust of 100 mph,” Porter points out in the statement.

“As accurately forecast by AccuWeather, the extremely close proximity of the ocean to the launch pad and the elevated location of the rocket and launch equipment hundreds of feet above the ground also increase the risk for hurricane force wind gusts versus a location even a mile or two inland and not as high off the ground,” Porter said.

Image credit: NASA/Joel Kowsky

Weather risk

The force of the wind increases exponentially, not linearly, “so small increases in wind can result in substantial increases in damage potential,” said Porter. 

“This entire situation raises serious questions about NASA’s procedures for weather risk mitigation and preparation based upon available forecasts, especially over the weekend given that several days notice is required in order to safely move the rocket back to the VAB [Vertical Assembly Building].

AccuWeather meteorologists had defined Nicole as a rainstorm, which posed a risk to the East Coast of Florida early Saturday afternoon, at least a day and half before the government began issuing advisories on the storm. 

Wind threshold

NASA itself has indicated that wind gusts of 85 mph or greater at 60 feet above the ground can spark concerns about potential damage to the launch apparatus or the rocket itself. 

Porter said in the statement that AccuWeather meteorologists had widely reported that the risk of a wind gust of 85 mph or greater to occur near the Kennedy Space Center to be 60 percent, or a 6 in 10 chance, for the wind threshold NASA defined to be exceeded.

Deemed by Porter as a “bold AccuWeather forecast” that prediction ended up “being the most accurate wind forecast and a superior description of the risk when compared to forecasts from the government and any other source, which predicated substantially less risk for hurricane force winds,” he said via the statement.

NASA’s call

In a November 10^th twitter posting, Jim Free, associate administrator for Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C. said: “We took the decision to keep Orion and SLS at the launch pad very seriously…”

With the unexpected change to the forecast, returning to the VAB, Free said, was “deemed to be too risky in high winds, and the team decided the launch pad was the safest place for the rocket to weather the storm.”