Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

The Center for Security and Emerging Technology within Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service has issued a new report: Shaping the U.S. Space Launch Market

Key Takeaways from the document are:

The United States finds itself in the position of world leader in launch, with a relatively consolidated
market. The United States conducts 50% more launches than it did at the peak of the space race—
but more than five out of every six U.S. launches come from SpaceX.

While evaluating the American launch market’s ability to meet critical U.S. national security and
foreign policy needs, this paper found the following challenges and opportunities exist in the
market:

Opportunities

• The United States leads the world in space launch by nearly every measure: number of
launches, total mass to orbit, satellite count, and more.
• SpaceX’s emergence has provided regular, reliable, and relatively affordable launches to
commercial and national security customers.
• Alongside SpaceX is a small group of technically viable alternatives. This variety offers the
country a measure of resilience in the face of national security threats.

Challenges

• Today’s market consolidation coupled with the capital requirements necessary to develop
rockets make it difficult for new competitors to break in.
• China has shown the ability and willingness to invest the level of capital needed to create
international competitors to the American leaders.

Image credit: Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Source: Dates via Crunchbase and company websites

Recommendations

1. The U.S. Department of Defense and NASA should:
a. Conduct research and strategic investment toward in-space transportation technologies.
b. Execute small satellite missions and expand purchases of small launch vehicle services to cheaply test technology and encourage a competitive future launch market.
c. Expand launch infrastructure capacity, dispersion, and resilience to improve U.S. launch capacity in peacetime and safeguard it in case of conflict.

2. The federal government should promote competition in the commercial space launch industry by continuing to allocate launches among multiple competitive vendors to ensure resilience and innovation.

Given the national security implications of the launch market, the United States must continue to encourage innovation and progress. Technologies such as reusability have provided a window of time for U.S. advantage. Continued innovation will be necessary to advance and sustain that advantage.

To download full report, go to:

https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/shaping-the-u-s-space-launch-market/