Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Clutter in the cosmos.
Credit: Used with permission: Melrae Pictures/Space Junk 3D

There has been astounding growth in the number of active satellites, increased by 1,702 in 2021, up to a total of 4,852.

New data from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Global Security Program shows that the number of satellites increased 30% annually the last two years, with the number of satellites launched in 2021 totaling more than the number of all operating satellites in 2016. 

The number of satellites could continue to grow dramatically; if all the planned satellite networks move forward the total number of satellites would near 100,000, according to Stephen Young, senior Washington representative for the Global Security Program.

Starlink satellites.
Credit: SpaceX

Key findings

Key takeaway messages from the assessment include: Between April 31 and December 31, 2021, 866 satellites were put into orbit. While not as dramatic as the 836 launched in the first four months of the year, it completes a meteoric rise of 1,702 satellites for the year. Also, the number launched this year is more than the total number of operating satellites in 2016, just six years ago. Over the last six years, the number increased 20% annually on average, jumping to more than 30% the last two years.

• While the rate of increase almost certainly won’t endure much longer, the number of operating satellites will continue to grow dramatically.
• As widely reported, the SpaceX Starlink network already has permission to launch up to 12,000 satellites and Elon Musk would like a second generation of 30,000 more satellites. Those numbers have NASA worried. In a submission to the Federal Communications Commission, the agency wrote: “NASA has concerns with the potential for a significant increase in the frequency of conjunction events and possible impacts to NASA’s science and human spaceflight missions.”
• If all the planned networks move forward, the total number of satellites would near 100,000. At that point the likelihood of adverse outcomes rises significantly, including increased risk of collisions, impacts on the International Space Station, and complications for Earth-based astronomy.

For more details from Young’s research, as well as colleague, Teri Grimwood, UCS Satellite Database researcher, go to:

https://allthingsnuclear.org/syoung/the-meteoric-rise-in-satellite-numbers/