Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

The uplift and downfall of Progress spacecraft.
Credit: Roscosmos

The fate of the out-of-control Russian Progress supply ship is near-at-hand.

The logistics spacecraft — Progress M-27M — was launched by a Soyuz booster April 28 from Area 31 of the Baikonur launch site at 10:09:50 Moscow Time.

As a resupply ship stocked with tons of cargo and fuel, it was headed for the International Space Station (ISS). The Progress was to use a “quick” 4-orbit flight profile of 6 hours duration to rendezvous with the orbiting outpost.

Shortly after launch, however, the Progress suffered a control problem – possibly due to a malfunctioning Soyuz upper stage, with this onboard video showing the spin-rate of the spacecraft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMiNjHjpunU

Progress M-27M being readied for launch.
Credit: OAO RSC Energia

Re-entry time

According to European Space Agency (ESA) spokesman, Daniel Scuka, in a May 7 posting:

“ESA space debris team reentry predictions now show the reentry window has shrunk to include just the night of Thursday/Friday, 7/8 May; we can exclude any time after early Friday morning. There are some first indications that the likelihood for a reentry over North America or Europe has dropped significantly.”

Sky observers are keeping a vigil on the soon-to-de-orbit Progress, such as this image from the Brazilian Meteor Observers Network (BRAMON) as the errant craft flew overhead.
Credit: BRAMON

Coming night

Holger Krag, Head of the ESA/European Space Operations Center’s Space Debris Office in Darmstadt, Germany: “We expect the re-entry to occur in the coming night.”

Krag told Inside Outer Space that “we have seen the probability dropping for North America and Europe to be affected.”

Given the eminent re-entry of Progress, Russia had not requested involvement of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), Krag said.

The primary purposes of the IADC are to exchange information on space debris research activities between member space agencies, to facilitate opportunities for cooperation in space debris research, to review the progress of ongoing cooperative activities, and to identify debris mitigation options.

Roscosmos, the Russian Federal Space Agency, is a member of IADC.

Also, go to this new Space.com story at:

Out-of-Control Russian Spacecraft Will Fall from Space Overnight

http://www.space.com/29344-falling-russian-spacecraft-reentry-tonight.html