Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

The late Frank Drake with cosmic equation to gauge the presence of intelligent life in the cosmos. The Drake Equation identifies specific factors believed to play a role in the development of civilizations in our galaxy.
Image credit: SETI Institute

To date, it appears that mum’s the word when trying to pick up communiqués from populations of other star folk. But is it possible that artificial intelligence may be to blame?

That’s at the heart of a research paper by Michael Garrett, Director of the Jodrell Bank Center for Astrophysics in Manchester, England. He is also the Sir Bernard Lovell Chair in Astrophysics at the University of Manchester.

Could it explain the great silence on the receiving end of current SETI surveys?

Garrett asks: Is artificial intelligence the “great filter” that makes advanced technical civilizations rare in the universe?

The “L” factor

It is all about the “L” factor when applied to optimistic versions of the famous Frank Drake equation:

N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

L equals the amount of time that civilizations have to broadcast their signals into space.

Artificial superintelligence

“This study examines the hypothesis that the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), culminating in the emergence of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), could act as a “Great Filter” that is responsible for the scarcity of advanced technological civilizations in the universe,” explains Garrett in the paper appearing in Acta Astronautica.

Graphic by Danielle Futselaar is the famous Drake Equation, representing the full spectrum of science undertaken at the SETI Institute. Wherever you are on Earth, the Drake Equation represents all explorations of our lives, and life beyond our home planet.
Credit: Danielle Futselaar/SETI Institute

“AI is emerging as one of the most transformative technological developments in human history,” Garrett tells Inside Outer Space. “It’s quite possible that biological civilizations may universally underestimate the speed with which AI progresses, as these are so different from the timescales on which previous technologies have advanced.”

In his research paper, Garrett says that there is little doubt that AI and in particular ASI “present a massive challenge to the longevity of our technical civilization and likely all technical civilizations that arise in the cosmos.”

Image credit: UCLA SETI

Major concerns, calamitous events

Pointed out by Garrett is the warning from some scientists, including the late big-cosmological thinker, Stephen Hawking. That is, AI could lead to the end of intelligence on Earth before humankind can achieve multi-planetary status.

Hawking and others have broadcast major concerns about “super-intelligent” AI eventually going rogue. Biological civilizations might universally underestimate the rapid speed at which advanced AI systems can autonomously progress, Garrett relates.

All in all, Garrett points out, there are questions about the inevitability of civilizations unwittingly triggering calamitous events, that may well spark the demise of both a biological and post-biological technical civilization.

Global regulations

“If SETI also serves as a lens through which we can examine our own technological trajectory and societal challenges, the urgency of establishing comprehensive global AI regulations cannot be overstated,” Garrett suggests. There is need for our own technical civilization to intensify efforts to control and regulate AI.

Image credit: SETI Post-detection Hub

The fuse has been lit given implied longevity timescales for the scenarios described by Garrett, roughly 100 to 200 years.

Rob the universe

Garrett tells Inside Outer Space that AI could lead to the end of intelligence on Earth — including AI post-biological forms — before mitigating strategies such as off-Earth migration, has been achieved.

“If this is the case, it may explain why we have not detected any evidence of advanced civilizations in astronomical surveys, in particular those made by SETI. If most technical civilizations, biological and post-biological, only last for a few hundred years, they will come and go in the Galaxy without ever overlapping in time,” Garrett senses. “This scenario underscores the necessity to intensify efforts to regulate AI – failure to do so could rob the universe of a conscious presence.”

New Mexico’s Very Large Array (VLA) – on the SETI trail.
(Image credit: Bettymaya Foott, NRAO/AUI/NSF)

In short, the message from the cosmos that Earthkind may be picking up is a bit dire – the sounds of silence.

“The continued presence of consciousness in the universe may depend on the success of strict global regulatory measures,” Garrett concludes in his Acta Astronautica paper.

To access the paper – “Is artificial intelligence the great filter that makes advanced technical civilizations rare in the Universe?” – go to:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576524001772?via%3Dihub