Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Archive for the ‘Wait a Minute!’ Category

UPDATE: NASA’s Moon News: VIPER CANCELLED

Go to NASA announcement at:

https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-ends-viper-project-continues-moon-exploration/

“VIPER is 100% built and has completed part of its testing. It is ready to go and NASA is junking a very capable rover and ceding leadership in resource exploration. It is a dark day for lunar science and exploration and maybe the Artemis program,” responds Clive Neal, a lunar exploration expert at the University of Notre Dame.

Posted earlier:

In wait-a-minute style, the Moon exploration community is holding its collective breath for the news stemming from today’s “Exploration Science Program Update” by NASA.

Nobody is quite sure what’s coming, but on the rocket docket is Nicola Fox, associate administrator, Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters.

Perhaps a tip on things to come, joining Fox is NASA’s Joel Kearns, deputy associate administrator for exploration, Science Mission Directorate.

Kearns also leads the Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative, the CLPS space agency/private sector activity.

There is some speculation that an update will be given on the status of CLPS, particularly the NASA contracted Astrobotic delivery of the agency’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER).

VIPER bite?

VIPER is a key part of NASA’s Artemis lunar exploration plan, a robotic endeavor in search of Moon ice and other potential resources.

Astrobotic is on tap to use its Griffin lunar lander to deliver VIPER to the Moon’s south pole, supposedly by year’s end. But the company experienced a rough-and-tumble start with CLPS.

In January of this year, the Astrobotic Peregrine Mission One to the Moon failed due to an in-space propulsion glitch.

So, perhaps, news on the whereabouts and timing of a VIPER sendoff?

Then, on the other hand, maybe no.

But stay tuned later today for some sort of Moon news.

 

Wait-a-minute: A misbehaving SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage has led to Starlink satellites each taking destructive dives, willy-nilly style, into the Earth’s atmosphere.

The July 11 liftoff of the SpaceX Starlink Group 9-3 from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California was a definite dud, with several of the 20 Starlinks already nearing their plunge to oblivion according to The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS).

To keep an eye on incoming Starlinks associated with the rare SpaceX upper stage mishap, go to https://aerospace.org/cords

 

 

Eccentric orbit

As explained in a SpaceX posting, Falcon 9’s second stage performed its first burn nominally, “however a liquid oxygen leak developed on the second stage.”

After a planned relight of the upper stage engine to raise the lowest point of orbit, that stage’s Merlin Vacuum engine experienced an anomaly and was unable to complete its second burn.

“Although the stage survived and still deployed the satellites, it did not successfully circularize its orbit,” SpaceX explained, but the stage did passivate itself, a step normally performed at the end of each mission.

This left the satellites in an eccentric orbit, SpaceX added, with a very low perigee to Earth of under 85 miles (135 kilometers) altitude, which is less than half the expected perigee altitude.

Incident investigation

“No public injuries or public property damage have been reported,” reports the Federal Aviation Administration that is now requiring an investigation of the incident.

“An investigation is designed to further enhance public safety, determine the root cause of the event, and identify corrective actions to avoid it from happening again,” states the FAA.

Furthermore, the FAA must approve SpaceX’s final report, including any corrective actions.

“A return to flight is based on the FAA determining that any system, process, or procedure related to the mishap does not affect public safety,” the FAA explains. “In addition, SpaceX may need to request and receive approval from the FAA to modify its license that incorporates any corrective actions and meet all other licensing requirements.”

I’ll raise you

According to SpaceX, the satellites were left in an enormously high-drag environment as they circuited the Earth.

At that level of drag, “our maximum available thrust is unlikely to be enough to successfully raise the satellites.”

The Starlink satellites will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and “fully demise,” SpaceX added. “They do not pose a threat to other satellites in orbit or to public safety.”

Fully demise

The term “fully demise” is worth a note here.

Evidence is mounting that the high-heating of spacecraft materials as they plow through the atmosphere at high speeds do off-load chemistry into the Earth’s upper stratosphere. How destructive to the atmosphere that process is remains in research mode.

Then there’s the issue of spacecraft pieces that do find their way to Earth’s surface, be it ocean or land.

Increased activity

Meanwhile, satellite tracker T.S. Kelso and the CelesTrak chief, has been monitoring all 20 Starlink spacecraft, eyeing their individual decay rates as they circle Earth.

“At least geomagnetic activity is low (normal) right now,” Kelso told Inside Outer Space, but NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is forecasting increased activity today.

CelesTrak ‘s mission is focused on making data and other resources freely available to the space community “to facilitate understanding of our orbital environment and how to use it safely and responsibly.”

Uptick in skyfall

All in all, SpaceX and company leftovers falling from the heavens have garnered increased attention.

Last May, the remainders of a SpaceX Dragon “trunk” from its Crew-7 mission peppered separate sites in North Carolina.

While Starlink’s construction and the Dragon trunk design are worlds apart, the uptick from uncontrolled riff-raff coming down is a growing, worrisome trend.

For one, the list of other trunk dumps that survived their fiery skyfall also includes Australia, as well as Canada.

As reported by Canada’s CBC News, SpaceX employees visited a farm near Ituna, Saskatchewan, northeast of Regina, whisking away a number of trunk fragments in a U-haul trailer.

The farmer that owns the property where the clutter came to full-stop was later compensated by SpaceX, CBC reports, for an undisclosed amount. Some of that money was subsequently donated to installation of a new local hockey rink.

 

Hot-lines

For its part, SpaceX has established a “SpaceX debris hot line” call-in number, as well as a “recovery@spaceX.com” email address.

“If you believe you have identified a piece of debris, please do not attempt to handle or retrieve the debris directly. Instead, please either email or leave a voice mail here with your name, number, and a brief description of what you have discovered and where,” the hot-line phone message explains.

“Teams are actively monitoring both message boxes and will ensure the notification is handled appropriately,” the recording adds. “If you have concerns about an immediate hazard, please contact your local law enforcement agency. Thank you, your assistance is greatly appreciated.”

Not sure if any recovered Starlink bits and pieces can use these same hot lines, but why not?

“I wish I may, I wish I might…Have the wish I wish tonight.”

 

Wait-a-Minute!

It turns out – one group’s space junk is another person’s viewing hot spot.

The Glamping Collective in North Carolina was on the receiving end last May of leftovers from the SpaceX Dragon Crew-7 mission to the International Space Station. 

On May 22, a member of the Glamping Collective landscaping crew discovered the space clutter. “The debris was discovered about a half mile up our Sunset Summit Trail,” according to a Collective posting. “We invite you to come experience this yourself!”

In early June, the Clyde, North Carolina-based organization began displaying the space clutter.

Image credit: Glamping Collective

Snack pack

“The Glamping Collective has long been known as an incredible place to enjoy the night sky and stargazing! The Milky Way Galaxy can be even be seen around our fire pits, or on the Sunset Summit Trail on clear summer nights.”

Also, when completing your booking look for their Galactic Glamping Snack Pack “to complete your out of this world experience!”

Go to: https://www.theglampingcollective.com/

 

NASA later issued a release confirming the re-entry of the Dragon spacecraft trunk hardware following its service mission to the International Space Station.

“Most recently, the trunks that supported SpaceX’s 30th commercial services resupply and Crew-7 missions re-entered over Saudi Arabia and North Carolina, respectively,” the NASA release stated. “NASA is unaware of any structural damage or injuries resulting from these findings.”

SpaceX hot line

For its part, SpaceX has established a “SpaceX debris hot line” as well as a “recovery@spaceX.com” email address.

“If you believe you have identified a piece of debris, please do not attempt to handle or retrieve the debris directly. Instead, please either email or leave a voice mail here with your name, number, and a brief description of what you have discovered and where,” the phone message explains.

 

“Teams are actively monitoring both message boxes and will ensure the notification is handled appropriately,” the recording adds. “If you have concerns about an immediate hazard, please contact your local law enforcement agency. Thank you, your assistance is greatly appreciated.”

 

 

 

 

 

Trunk deliverables

For more details on this North Carolina incident, as well as other findings of Dragon trunk deliverables in Canada and Australia, go to:

 

 

 

 

1)

More SpaceX Space Trunk Debris Found?

https://www.leonarddavid.com/42221-2/

2)

More Trunk Space: New SpaceX Debris Found?

https://www.leonarddavid.com/trunk-space-new-spacex-debris-found/

3)

SpaceX Dragon Debris – Trunk Junk Recovered in Canada?

https://www.leonarddavid.com/spacex-dragon-debris-trunk-junk-recovered-in-canada/

4)

For a view of my recent SpaceNews story – “Uncontrolled reentry of space debris poses a real and growing threat” – go to:

https://spacenews.com/uncontrolled-reentry-of-space-debris-poses-a-real-and-growing-threat/

 

In classic “wait-a-minute” style, back in mid-April, NASA requested proposals from industry to do a double-take on the costly Mars Sample Return (MSR) initiative to return samples of the Red Planet in the 2030s.

NASA is now moving forward with 10 studies to examine more affordable and faster methods of bringing samples from Mars’ surface back to Earth.

The MSR seven

As part of this re-look, NASA will award a firm-fixed-price contract for up to $1.5 million to conduct 90-day studies to seven industry proposers.

Additionally, the go-ahead has been given to NASA centers, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Johns Hopkins’ Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) to also crank out MSR re-evaluation studies in the hopes of improving MSR’s price tag and schedule.

Alterations or enhancements

Once all the studies are in hand, NASA will assess them to consider alterations or enhancements to the Mars Sample Return architecture, tagged by independent assessment groups as perhaps costing upwards of $11 billion to carry out.

NASA has announced that the following companies and their proposals were selected from among those that responded to the April 15 request for help in re-shaping the MSR undertaking. They are:

 

Lockheed Martin, Littleton, Colorado: “Lockheed Martin Rapid Mission Design Studies for Mars Sample Return”

SpaceX, Hawthorne, California: “Enabling Mars Sample Return With Starship”

Aerojet Rocketdyne, Huntsville, Alabama: “A High-Performance Liquid Mars Ascent Vehicle, Using Highly Reliable and Mature Propulsion Technologies, to Improve Program Affordability and Schedule”

Blue Origin, Monrovia, California: “Leveraging Artemis for Mars Sample Return”

Quantum Space, Rockville, Maryland: “Quantum Anchor Leg Mars Sample Return Study”

Northrop Grumman, Elkton, Maryland: “High TRL [Technology Readiness Level]  MAV [Mars Ascent Vehicle] Propulsion Trades and Concept Design for MSR Rapid Mission Design”

Whittinghill Aerospace, Camarillo, California: “A Rapid Design Study for the MSR Single Stage Mars Ascent Vehicle”

Dumpster fire

All of this activity was sparked last September when an independent review board (IRB) released its findings after taking a diligent and detailed look at the flagship MSR project.

The IRB was established by NASA to judge the technical requirements, cost and calendar plans of the task. It was a thorough sanity check on how things were going for MSR…and things were found not to be going well.

For more information, go to my Scientific American story – “NASA’s Troubled Mars Sample Mission Has Scientists Seeing Red – NASA’s Mars Sample Return program is the agency’s highest priority in planetary science, but projected multibillion-dollar overruns have some calling the plan a “dumpster fire”” – at:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nasas-troubled-mars-sample-mission-has-scientists-seeing-red/

 

In a wait-a-minute moment, pre-launch imagery of China’s Chang’e-6 shows some sort of a mini-rover with four wheels.

But so far, as far as I know, there’s been no official word from the China National Space Agency (CNSA) regarding the rover.

A glimmer of information has come from a story via China’s Science Network (news.sciencenet.cn). It does note the presence of a Chang’e-6 lunar rover.

Imaging spectrometer

According to the article, the Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (later referred to as Shanghai Institute of Ceramics) undertook the development of a number of key materials.

“The large-sized tellurium dioxide crystal developed by the Shanghai Silicate Institute has excellent acoustic and optical properties and is a key material to achieve a large field of view, high spatial and spectral resolution, and is used in the infrared imaging spectrometer of the Chang’e-6 lunar rover,” the story explains.

Shutter speak

“The ultrasonic motor is the ‘helper’ that presses the shutter for the ‘Chang’e Family’ lunar rover’s infrared imaging spectrometer. Piezoelectric ceramics are the core material of the ultrasonic motor,” the story continues. “Following Chang’e-3, 4 and 5, the wide temperature range and highly stable piezoelectric excitation element developed by Shanghai Silicate Institute was successfully used in the Chang’e-6 ultrasonic motor.”

So there you have it, all of it so far. But surely more is to come given a successful far side touchdown of the Chang’e-6 sample return mission. If the rover is deployed and in good shape, perhaps looks at lunar sampling operations may be in the offing.

Then there’s the prospect of a view of the Chang’e-6’s ascender craft departing the area, loaded with its precious cargo of collected Moon goodies.

Rover comparisons

On the other hand, the Chang’e-6 rover machinery is clearly different than the earlier Yutu-1 and Yutu-2 rovers, each with six wheels, both loaded to their solar panels with lots of equipment.

 

The Chang’e-3 Moon lander let loose Yutu-1 in Mare Imbrium after its December 2013 arrival on the Moon.  

Yutu-2’s home turf since deployed by the Chang’e-4 lander in January 2019 is Von Kármán crater within the Moon’s south pole-Aitken basin. It is reportedly alive and well and still on the move.

 

Lastly, as a prelude to the launch of Chang’e-6, a communication test between China’s recently lofted Queqiao-2 relay satellite was carried out, one aspect of which was linking up with Chang’e-4 far side lander/rover hardware.

Hopefully, more details about the Chang’e-6 rover duties are forthcoming, once rolling about the landing zone.

Over the last number of years, our planet has become encircled by Starlink, OneWeb, and other “megaconstellation” satellites.

Yes, the emergence of those megaconstellations offers great benefit for humanity. But in a wait-a-minute pause, there are also substantial costs, including the imposition on humankind’s ongoing and growing thirst for astronomical peering into the surrounding universe.

That’s the view of David Koplow, the Scott K. Ginsburg Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

“We are just beginning to appreciate how bad the disruption can be for land-based and space-based telescopes, and as more and more satellite overflights occur, the problems will only intensify,” Koplow told Inside Outer Space.

Legal rights

Koplow’s concerns have been voiced in several scholarly works, the titles of which underscore his qualms, such as: “Large Constellations of Small Satellites: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly and the Illegal,” as well as “Blinded by the Light: Resolving the Conflict Between Satellite Megaconstellations and Astronomy.”

 “The world has mostly been assuming that the relevant international law basically allows the satellite companies to do whatever they want in space, while forcing the observatories to adapt as well as they can,” Koplow advised. 

But in reality, Koplow continues, the legal regime is not so one-sided. “Astronomers also have legal rights to free use of space, and they need not stand by idly while their profession is damaged.”

Hair on fire

Koplow points out that in 2019 the world of optical and radio astronomy changed abruptly and massively when the first SpaceX batch of 60 Starlink satellites was lofted.

“Jolted by the sudden brightness of those spacecraft, and alarmed by the prospect of their legions of successors, observatories scrambled to respond,” Koplow observes.

They did so by studying and documenting the true dimensions of the problem, beginning to invent or conceptualize mitigation measures, and entering into discussions with SpaceX and other companies.

“Some astronomers see this as a true ‘hair on fire’ emergency, heralding irretrievable losses to space science; others present a more sanguine face, depicting this as yet another challenge to be surmounted in surveying a decreasingly pristine sky,” Koplow remarks.

Incipient clash

That said, the astronomical community has related that the time and the financial costs of conducting effective astronomy will rise considerably, Koplow says, “and that some important data will simply be irretrievable, with concomitant losses for science and the future exploration and use of space.”

In his “Blinded by the Light” treatise, Koplow describes the incipient clash between satellite megaconstellations and astronomy, assesses the relevant international and domestic legal authorities, and proposes compromise solutions to mitigate the damage.

“Overall, the thesis is that a better balance must be struck between these competing types of space activities,” Koplow adds, “without ceding to either a comprehensive right to proceed in disregard of the key functions of the other.”

Voluntary measures

Koplow acknowledges that some satellite companies have voluntarily invested considerable corporate talent and money in efforts to mitigate their interference with astronomy. 

“But these voluntary measures are not adequate to solve the problem, they are not durable and reliable, and they have not been adopted by all the companies,” Koplow suggests.

“A stronger response is necessary,” Koplow concludes.

To gain access to “Blinded by the Light: Resolving the Conflict Between Satellite Megaconstellations and Astronomy” go to: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4346299

To review the paper “Three Things I Hate About Large Constellations of Small Satellites” go to: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4503593

 

 

In a post-flight analysis of the Artemis 1 uncrewed mission, NASA has identified more than 100 locations where ablative thermal protective material from the Artemis 1 Orion heat shield chipped away unexpectedly during reentry into Earth’s atmosphere.

In classic “wait a minute” style, a NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) report has been issued – “NASA’s Readiness for the Artemis II Crewed Mission to Lunar Orbit” – calling attention to this issue and others before sending off a human crew to circle the Moon.

Root cause

To ensure the safety of the crewed Artemis II mission, the newly-issued OIG report recommends the Associate Administrator for Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate:

1. “Ensure the root cause of Orion heat shield char liberation is well understood prior to launch of the Artemis II mission.
2. Conduct analysis of Orion separation bolts using updated models that account for char loss, design modifications, and operational changes to Orion prior to launch of the Artemis II mission.”

The report by the NASA OIG also notes that “human space flight by its very nature is inherently risky, and the Artemis campaign is no exception. We urge NASA leadership to continue balancing the achievement of its mission objectives and schedule with prioritizing the safety of its astronauts and to take the time needed to avoid any undue risk.”

Taking the heat

In earlier reporting, here’s my take on the situation, as posted on Space.com:

“NASA still investigating Orion heat shield issues from Artemis 1 moon mission” at:

https://www.space.com/nasa-investigate-orion-heat-shield-artemis-1-mission

For more information on the new IG report, take a look at Brett Tingley’s new story at Space.com – “NASA inspector general finds Orion heat shield issues ‘pose significant risks’ to Artemis 2 crew safety” at:

https://www.space.com/nasa-artemis-1-orion-heat-shield-office-inspector-general

Also read this story by Eric Berger, senior space editor at Ars Technica titled “NASA says Artemis II report by its inspector general is unhelpful and redundant” at:

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/05/nasa-seems-unhappy-to-be-questioned-about-its-artemis-ii-readiness/

For a full read of this just-issued NASA OIG report, go to:

https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ig-24-011.pdf

In classic “wait a minute” style, for ConkSat where there’s will, there’s a way – with X postings offering some challenging marketing concepts.

“For years, spaceflight companies have discussed means for reducing the amount of space junk in low Earth orbit (LEO). As visionaries at ConkSat, we have never been satisfied with the status quo – and that means going against popular thinking. That’s why we’re announcing the first spacecraft dedicated to increasing the amount of space junk in LEO,” explains a ConkSat posting.

“FragSat is more than a satellite – it’s a cloud of over 70 billion steel ball bearings packed into a payload fairing. Say goodbye to your competitor’s megaconstellations with FragSat, guaranteed to increase the rate of collisions in orbit by orders of magnitude. Taking advantage of the increase in payload to orbit offered by new launchers, we’re planning on up to twenty launches per year of pure steel, rendering entire families of orbits unusable for centuries,” continues the posting from ConkSat.

“Just another way we’re bringing space down to Earth.”

Quality Unassurance

Another X posting from ConkSat spotlight they fired their entire quality assurance team.

“How are we going to keep our rockets, satellites, and missiles at the quality expected of the ConkSat brand? Simple – we aren’t. We can’t let quality assurance hold us back from true innovation. From this point forward, we aren’t keeping lengthy or dated records. We won’t be “doing critical maintenance.” Our engineers will be motivated by the desire to push humanity forward, and by the fact that we required them to live downrange of the launch site.”

 

What’s the point?

“People called us crazy. People called us names. Some hurtful. People told us we were “violating federal regulations” and would be “shut down immediately.” But you don’t become a leading defense contractor without stepping on a few toes.”

“Let’s be honest. Everybody’s worst nightmare is dumping $1bn in seed money into a rocket startup, only to have them churn out an ugly looking launch vehicle with weird fins at the top. If you’re embarrassed to release the promotional hype video, what’s the point? That’s why we at ConkSat recognize the importance of a smooth profile. Our launch vehicles are guaranteed to be 100% smooth with no protrusions or ugly changes in diameter that could render your investment silly.”

Artificial intelligence

“At ConkSat, we know AI is the future. Everything we do is powered by AI – every email, every spreadsheet, and every piece of code is created 100% by ChatGPT. Our launch vehicles are guided completely by onboard neural networks: even we don’t know where our rockets will land! Curious about how we’ll create the future of spaceflight? So are we! Hopefully we figure it out before our investors do.”

Thank you ConkSat for all that you do! — Leonard David

China has reportedly embarked on a magnetic levitation (MagLev) system using an electromagnetic catapult to hurl a 50-ton space plane down a track at speeds up to Mach 1.6.

At the rail gun’s end, the space plane would use a propulsion system to reach orbit.

The South China Morning Post reports work on the idea is underway. Just how much momentum the research has behind it isn’t clear.

But if this sounds familiar…it is…and a wait-a-minute moment.

Years ago, NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center showcased a 50 feet (15 meters) MagLev test track.

NASA engineers working on the concept, however, couldn’t levitate, attract, and speed the necessary moolah their way to the idea – essentially derailing work.

Mass drivers

Waaay back in 1974, work on “mass drivers” was undertaken by the late Gerard O’Neill and colleagues at Princeton University and also the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Mass drivers were viewed then as the logical means for transporting lunar raw material to special spots in space, namely L-5.

Those mass drivers were electromagnetic launchers that could accelerate payloads in re-circulating buckets with superconducting magnet coils at a repetition rate of about ten per second.

 

Raw power

One application O’Neill proposed for mass drivers: toss baseball-sized chunks of ore mined from the surface of the Moon into space. Once in space, the ore could be used as raw material for building space colonies and solar power satellites.

Now decades later, enter the world of today’s bullet trains, high-velocity artillery shells, airplane catapults, hyped-up hypersonic vehicles, new materials, and superconductor thinking – time for a MagLev re-look for space?

Space technologists in China seemingly think so.

Go to: “China building giant hypersonic railgun for space launches” by Gabriel Honrada in Asian Times at:

China building giant hypersonic railgun for space launches

Also, for more information, go to these previous Inside Outer Space stories:

https://www.leonarddavid.com/navy-rail-gun-progress-ideal-for-the-moon/

https://www.leonarddavid.com/electromagnetic-mass-driver-back-to-the-moon/

 

There’s some interesting “wait a minute” fallout from the upcoming nose dive to Earth of the European Remote Sensing satellite, ERS-2.

According to the European Space Agency (ESA), the spent ERS-2 satellite weighing 2.3 tons is predicted to slip into Earth’s atmosphere on February 19 – with a current uncertainty of +/- 2.8 days.

“No intervention can be made from the ground, so ERS-2 will return entirely naturally – now a common occurrence as on average one spacecraft reenters Earth’s atmosphere per month,” an ESA statement explains.

The bit about “return entirely naturally” is an interesting, user-friendly substitute for “uncontrolled.”

 

End of life

Following its launch in April 1995, ERS-2 ran for nearly 16 years of observing the Earth.

In 2011, ESA took the decision to bring the mission to an end.

That was followed by ground-activated de-orbit maneuvers. Those lowered the satellite’s average altitude and mitigated the risk of collision with other satellites or space debris, ESA notes.

The spacecraft was also “passivated” to reduce the risk of fragmentation. Passivated is getting rid of internally stored energy, like unused propellant, even de-charging batteries.

Wake-up call

All that said there are those that see the fall of ERS-2 as a calling card from space that doubles as a wake-up call – and on several fronts.

“While the ESA should be lauded for its efforts to de-orbit the ERS-2, it should be unsurprising that a 2.3-ton satellite launched into Earth orbit without any enforceable orbital debris regulation will then return to Earth’s atmosphere as orbital debris in an explosive uncontrolled reentry,” said Michael Runnels, an assistant professor of business law at California State University, Los Angeles.

“Indeed, these events highlight the continuing need for enforceable orbital debris regulation to support the sustainable exploration and scientific investigation of outer space,” Runnels told Inside Outer Space.

Someone someday

Ewan Wright is a PhD candidate at the University of British Columbia and Junior Fellow of the Outer Space Institute. He is actively focused on the sustainability of the outer space environment.

ERS-2 is a three decade old Earth Observation satellite with a mass about that of a Ford F-150, Wright said. “ERS-2 won’t burn up entirely when it reenters the atmosphere, so there is a chance that debris will hit someone on the ground, or disrupt air traffic.”

Wright told Inside Outer Space that, fortunately, the probability of someone getting hit is small. “But if we keep doing this again and again, someone someday will get hurt.”

Random reentries

Last year, 30 satellites larger than 500 kilograms uncontrollably reentered the atmosphere.

In total, in 2023, about 55 tons of satellite reentered randomly, Wright stated. ESA was responsible in lowering ERS-2’s orbit to make sure it didn’t become permanent space debris, he said.

“But in the future, all large satellites should do controlled reentries. Operators should control them to reenter over the oceans, away from people, aircraft and ships,” Wright concluded.

Minimize risk

The incoming ERS-2 is something that happens quite regularly with defunct satellites, said Leonard Schulz, a researcher at the Technische Universität Braunschweig’s Institute of Geophysics and Extraterrestrial Physics in Braunschweig, Germany.

Such falls will only increase in the future, Schulz added, due to the growing number of objects brought into low Earth orbit.

 

 

“I think the mass of the object stands out, probably some parts of the satellite will survive reentry,” Schulz told Inside Outer Space. “And this is the reason why people try to make satellites burn up completely in the atmosphere, to minimize the risk to people on ground.”

 

 

 

Atmospheric effects

Schulz said that there’s need to consider the effects on the atmosphere from spacecraft re-entry, a hot topic that ESA is evaluating.

“Today, we are lacking information on many aspects when it comes to materials released and subsequent effects on the atmosphere,” Schulz pointed out.

Satellite reentries are a good opportunity to gather observational data with measurement campaigns, Schulz advised. However, such uncontrolled reentries as with ERS-2 are extremely difficult to observe, he said, as the uncertainty of where the satellite reenters is so high.

“But controlled reentries provide great measurement opportunities,” Schulz concluded, “which should be a focus in the future!”