Leonard David's INSIDE OUTER SPACE

Yucatan meets the Caribbean (red circle)
Image credit: Cambrian Foundation

That nearly 3-ton leftover tossed overboard from the International Space Station years ago has made a destructive plunge to Earth.

That multi-ton Exposed Pallet 9 (EP9) carrying 5,800 pounds of batteries was jettisoned in 2021 from the space station using the Canada-supplied robotic arm.

Taking out the trash. Multi-ton pallet tossed off years ago returns to Earth.
Image credit: NASA/Mike Hopkins

The Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC), based at Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. published a final Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) message. That TIP gives reentry at 19:29 UTC plus or minus one minute, near 22.0 N, 85.5 W.

Image credit: SIBRS sensors monitor the Earth.
Image credit: US Air Force

The +- 1 minute suggests this is likely based on a Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) satellite sensor observation of the reentry fireball, says Marco Langbroek, an expert satellite watcher in the Netherlands. “The position is where Yucatan meets the Caribbean,” he adds.

SIBRS data is also one likely input into the Jet Propulsion Laboratory-hosted Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).

U.S. government sensor information contributes to gauging atmospheric impact events. Bolide data, for example, is filtered into the CNEOS fireballs database – info useful for NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office.

Casualty risk: low

According to a pre-reentry statement by the European Space Agency, the total mass of the batteries is estimated at 2.6 metric tons, most of which may burn up during the reentry. “While some parts may reach the ground, the casualty risk – the likelihood of a person being hit – is very low,” the ESA statement added.

During the uncontrolled fall of space hardware, seconds and minutes count. They can add up to de-orbiting riff raff plunging into isolated ocean waters or reaching land.
(Image credit: The Aerospace Corporation/Center for Space Policy and Strategy)

EP9 was loaded with old Nickel-Hydrogen batteries and had the approximate mass of a large SUV.

The EP9 was delivered to the ISS via Japan’s HTV-9 (Kountori 9) on May 20, 2020.

The EP9 carried six Lithium-Ion battery Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) which replaced those existing ISS Nickel-Hydrogen batteries during an astronaut spacewalk.

Image credit:
EU Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST)

Note: Special thanks to Marco Langbroek and Bob Christy for reentry data.